Nomura Global Autos Monthly: Global outlook cut as China demand underwhelms; Rising China-made exports could reignite trade tensions across key auto markets
Report Coverage
- Broker
- Nomura
- Region
- Global (China, India, US, Europe, Japan, Korea)
- Sector
- Machinery & Equipment
- Report Type
- Market Report
- Primary Focus
- Global auto market outlook
Full Report Document Access
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Report Summary
Nomura revises down global auto sales forecast to -1% y-y for 2026 (from +2% six months ago). China's domestic demand deteriorated for 5 consecutive months after NEV tax exemption expiry. Chinese OEMs pivoting to exports (7.37mn units forecast), which could reignite trade tensions.
Key Takeaways
- Global auto sales +2% y-y in April
- Ex-China/Russia +5% led by India (+25%)
- China wholesale declined 5th consecutive month
- 2026 forecast cut to -1% y-y
- China export forecasts raised to 7.37mn units (+19%)
- China-made vehicles' share in key markets could rise from 15% to 22% by 2027
- India outlook revised up by 0.47mn units
Why This Report Matters
China's weakening domestic auto demand combined with surging exports creates a dual risk: earnings pressure for global automakers and potential new trade barriers as Chinese vehicles rapidly gain market share overseas.
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Companies Mentioned
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