US Economics Weekly: A new FOMC Chair
Report Coverage
- Broker
- UBS
- Region
- United States
- Sector
- Finance, Real Estate
- Report Type
- Economic Report
- Primary Focus
- June FOMC preview with new Chair Warsh and peak CPI analysis
Full Report Document Access
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Report Summary
UBS previews the June FOMC meeting — Kevin Warsh’s first as Chair. No rate change expected; updated SEP median assumes no cuts until 2028. The press conference will be the key event as Warsh introduces his communication style. Core CPI rose 0.21% in May (12m 2.75%→2.85%), headline 0.47% (3.81%→4.25%); UBS expects May to mark the peak. Also covers retail sales, housing starts, trade revisions, and world cup economics.
Key Takeaways
- June FOMC: Warsh’s first meeting as Chair; no rate change expected; SEP median assumes no cuts until 2028
- Press conference is key event: first Warsh speech as policymaker in ~15 years with new communication style
- Core CPI +0.21% in May (12m 2.85%), headline +0.47% (12m 4.25%); UBS expects May to be peak unless crude rises further
- Retail sales: control group stores +0.5% in May; gasoline stores strong again; breadth signals consumer momentum
- Housing starts and permits both expected to fall modestly in May; import prices for core PCE tracking
- Annual trade data revisions likely to boost Q1 GDP and weigh on 2025 growth
Why This Report Matters
Warsh’s first FOMC as Chair introduces significant communication uncertainty that could drive outsized market moves, making the press conference the key catalyst.
Topics Covered
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This summary is for users researching the UBS US Economics Weekly report. It helps users review US Economics Weekly: A new FOMC Chair coverage, key takeaways, and related broker or sector research paths across FOMC Monetary Policy, Kevin Warsh Fed Chair, US CPI and Inflation.
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