メルカリ(4385) 投資評価「Overweight」へ引き上げ：治安改善とAI活用によるGMV成長トライバーの多様化
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Report Summary
JPMorgan upgrades Mercari (4385) from Neutral to Overweight, raising its December 2026 price target from ¥3,200 to ¥5,000. The upgrade is anchored on diversifying GMV growth drivers beyond the trading-card-heavy entertainment/hobbies category into apparel, driven by trust-and-safety measures (Safe Appraisal service, anti-malicious-resale policies) and AI-powered home screen recommendations. The fintech segment continues to expand credit receivables through AI-based credit screening while maintaining high collection rates, and management’s growing focus on the capital base reduces the risk of a return to losses.
Key Takeaways
- JPMorgan raises Mercari’s medium-term core operating profit CAGR forecast to 12% over FY6/27–FY6/29, exceeding the industry average of 10.4%, and applies a 23x P/E to derive the ¥5,000 price target.
- Apparel GMV growth accelerated sharply from 1.5% YoY in 1Q to 15.3% in 3Q of FY6/26, and is expected to account for 34% of domestic GMV by FY6/29, rivaling entertainment/hobbies at 36.2%.
- The Safe Appraisal service (launched March 2024, outsourced to IVA/FAKEBUSTERS) enables authentication of sneakers, branded goods, and trading cards, boosting buyer confidence and average order values for higher-priced items.
- A major home-screen redesign in December 2024 permanently features AI-generated product recommendations, lengthening user session time and driving incremental discovery beyond search-based purchases.
- Mercari’s anti-resale policies—including the October 2025 basic principle revision and the May 2026 McDonald’s Happy Set toy ban—aim to make the platform a safer, more trustworthy marketplace to attract users toward 30 million MAU.
- The fintech revolving-credit balance continues to grow, reflecting the unique buy-resell-repay cycle in the Mercari ecosystem, with core operating profit CAGR of 17.6% projected for FY6/27–FY6/29.
Why This Report Matters
As the Japanese-language version of the upgrade, this report confirms JPMorgan’s conviction that Mercari’s operational transformation—combining AI, trust-and-safety infrastructure, and anti-resale enforcement—can sustain above-industry profit growth while de-risking the business model from speculative trading card demand.
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